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Recent morphologic evolution of the German Wadden Sea
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We acknowledge that this study does not focus on the recent anthropogenic influences in the German Bight. Direct and indirect effects of maintenance dredging, river deepening and dike construction on the evolution of the Wadden Sea are not considered. The results of this study may be affected by data scarcity and uncertainty, an overview of which is explained in the methods section and the supplementary information. Regardless, it is the first approach of a quantification of recent Wadden Sea development based on all available bathymetric data of the area.
To derive a consistent dataset on a year-to-year basis, data from multiple measuring campaigns were merged and interpolated by spatio-temporal interpolation. The compilation includes data from shipborne echo sounder, LiDAR and profile measurement surveys, with a highly varying density of measuring points. The spatio-temporal difference between measurements varies: regions of economic importance shipping channels are surveyed more frequently than less accessible areas tidal flats. The discretization of the morphology may invoke uncertainties.
However, the large number of grid cells, as well as the large area considered, are reducing these uncertainties subsequently. Smaller basins and artefacts resulting from the application of the method were combined to larger entities. Barrier Islands and topographic features were used as a seaward boundary, where applicable.
The watershed method is usually applied on terrestrial DEMs with unidirectional water flow. The resulting watersheds were created semi-automatically, and the hydrodynamic watersheds may be at a different location. Watersheds cannot be considered static over the time interval Still, as the analysis showed, neighbouring basins have a similar behaviour in terms of accretion and erosion patterns and scales, hence not affecting the general statements of this study. The model was run for the first half of the year The resulting MLW values for subtidal regions were inter- and extrapolated for each nearby basin, and combined with the 10 year average MLW values from available gauges in the German Bight Averaged MLW of each basin were applied on the annual spatio-temporally interpolated DEMs to calculate the intertidal area, intertidal sediment volume, subtidal area and subtidal channel volume of the first and last 5 years — and — For better comparison, volumes were calculated based on a fixed MLW level.
If we consider a rise in MLW over the year period, the volumes and rates will be lower, as by definition the sediment volume will decrease linearly with time. Besides volumes and surface areas, the mean intertidal height and mean subtidal depth were calculated for each year. To weaken the impact of the spatio-temporal interpolation on calculated trends, different weights were used for the individual values.
We used a multiplier, based on the coverage rounded up first decimal times a factor 10, to increase the number of points in time. The short time series and data scarcity does not justify fitting of a more complex than linear model. Although difficult to assess, we assume the results have a higher reliability than simple DEMs of Difference, as outliers and seasonal effects are diminished. It is obvious that the year-to-year variance is lower than the given range.
Areas with less than three annual datasets were not taken into account. The absolute uncertainty of the data induced by the measurements, positioning and spatio-temporal interpolation on the final subtidal accretion rates cannot be assessed, thus this study must be read as a best guess indicative analysis with a plausible result.
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Morphodynamic development and sediment budget of the Dutch Wadden Sea over the last century. Temporal changes in intertidal macrofauna communities over eight decades: A result of eutrophication and climate change. Shelf Sci. Exploring German Bight coastal morphodynamics based on modelled bed shear stress. Geo-Marine Lett.
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Herrling, G. Morphological and sedimentological response of a mixed-energy barrier island tidal inlet to storm and fair-weather conditions. Earth Surf. Flemming, B. Holocene evolution, morphodynamics and sedimentology of the Spiekeroog barrier island system southern North Sea. Senckenbergiana maritima. Holocene evolution of tidal systems in The Netherlands: Effects of rivers, coastal boundary conditions, eco-engineering species, inherited relief and human interference.
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Earth-Science Rev. Lotze, H. Human transformations of the Wadden Sea ecosystem through time: A synthesis. Winterwerp, J. Man-induced regime shifts in small estuaries - I: Theory.
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Ocean Dyn. Blossier, B. Spatial and temporal scales of shoreline morphodynamics derived from video camera observations for the island of Sylt, German Wadden Sea. Winter, C. Macro scale morphodynamics of the German North Sea coast. SI 64 , — Hofstede, J. Are Wadden Sea tidal systems with a higher tidal range more resilient against sea level rise? Weser- und Emsgebiet Elbegebiet Teil III Valerius, J. Friedrichs, C. Tidal Flat Morphodynamics: A Synthesis. Van Ledden, M.
A conceptual framework for the erosion behaviour of sand-mud mixtures. Shelf Res. Hu, Z. Dynamic equilibrium behaviour observed on two contrasting tidal flats from daily monitoring of bed-level changes. Geomorphology , — Christiansen, C. Beets, D. The Holocene evolution of the barrier and the back-barrier basins of Belgium and the Netherlands as a function of late Weichselian morphology, relative sea-level rise and sediment supply. Wahl, T. Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from to present. Processed and corrected gauge data.
Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. Dissanayake, D. Change , — Wang, Z. Morphodynamics of the Wadden Sea and its barrier island system. Ocean Coast. Milbradt, P. Schubert, K. Ems und Jade. Morphologic responses of Wadden Sea tidal basins to a rise in tidal water levels and tidal range. Carrasco, A. Coastal lagoons and rising sea level: A review.
Dieckmann, R. Influence of water-level elevation and tidal range on the sedimentation in a German tidal flat area. Pye, K. The geomorphology of UK estuaries: The role of geological controls, antecedent conditions and human activities. The differences in morphological development between the intertidal flats of the Eastern and Western Scheldt.
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